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Short-Term Target: 98k, potential run to 100k.
Long-Term Target: 87k, waiting for more confluences.
We are currently in a wedge formation. The VWAP, VAL, and Daily S/R levels are in play, and we’ve already seen a bounce. Today, the US markets are closed due to the death of Jimmy Carter. Tomorrow, the markets will reopen, and the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) numbers are expected to be released. These numbers are anticipated to be lower. If not, prices may decline sharply.
SP500: Consolidation with positive movement in the 10-year bond yield.
Upcoming: Trump is set to return to the White House on January 20.
Tomorrow’s Expectations:

• SP500: An aggressive upward move is expected, followed by a potential downturn due to tariffs and unstable geopolitical situations.
• BTC: Expected to follow the SP500, maintaining a strong correlation (88% over the last 100 days).

Technicals:

• Indicators: RSI, VWAP, AO, ADX, MFI all suggest potential pump-and-dump activity.
• Weekly: Bearish
• Daily: Bearish (indicative of a bull and bear struggle)
• 4H: Bearish with short-term bullish potential
• 30 Min: Bullish

15-Min Insights:

• Open Interest (OI): Decreasing while price decreases, with volatile volume – Semi-bullish.
• Delta: Bullish
• CVD: Bullish

Setup: A+

I closed by BTC position (which was infact call spreads on BITO) at 107k and haven’t touched it. I don’t like to short in general and bitcoin can be very tricky.
I am interested in BTC at around 80k after the resolution of the BTC Futures Volume Gap and the mitigation of short interest present at former all time highs etc.
If volatility has spiked aggressively I may look to enter into a credit put spread and use that to finance OTM calls at longer expirations, I will do that all on IBIT.
On a paper trade I setup a few days ago I have OTM 45 puts on the February 21 contract on IBIT. I didn’t actually take the trade as I’ve been busy managing QQQ and NVDA positions, but it would have served the basis of a multi leg low risk synthetic call if I had.
The open papertrade on Optionstrat is linked below. It was planned but I didn’t take it because I got distracted by other things like watching 50% of my unrealized profit on NVDA vaporize because of a stupid mistake I made when hedging.
optionstrat.com/5VsEsiU5Njzw

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/DXY/QLHMWohG-US-Treasury-Yield-and-USD-concerns-Market-Update-1-8-2024/